Látum þá berjast í friði!

(via [Andrew Sullivan](http://www.andrewsullivan.com/index.php?dish_inc=archives/2005_01_09_dish_archive.html#110533168328109280)) – [Stratfor](http://www.stratfor.com/), sjálfstætt fyrirtæki, sem sérhæfir sig í hermálum birtir þessa greiningu á ástandinu í Írak:

> The issue facing the Bush administration is simple. It can continue to fight the war as it has, hoping that a miracle will bring successes in 2005 that didn’t happen in 2004. Alternatively, it can accept the reality that the guerrilla force is now self-sustaining and sufficiently large not to flicker out and face the fact that a U.S. conventional force of less than 150,000 is not likely to suppress the guerrillas. More to the point, it can recognize these facts: 1. The United States cannot re-engineer Iraq because the guerrillas will infiltrate every institution it creates. 2. That the United States by itself lacks the intelligence capabilities to fight an effective counterinsurgency. 3. That exposing U.S. forces to security responsibilities in this environment generates casualties without bringing the United States closer to the goal. 4. That the strain on the U.S. force is undermining its ability to react to opportunities and threats in the rest of the region. And that, therefore, this phase of the Iraq campaign must be halted as soon as possible.

Þeir mæla með því að Bandaríkjamenn dragi herlið sitt útað jaðri landsins og leyfi borgarastríði að geysa í friði!:

>After the January elections, there will be a Shiite government in Baghdad. There will be, in all likelihood, civil war between Sunnis and Shia. The United States cannot stop it and cannot be trapped in the middle of it. It needs to withdraw.

>Certainly, it would have been nice for the United States if it had been able to dominate Iraq thoroughly. Somewhere between “the U.S. blew it” and “there was never a chance” that possibility is gone. It would have been nice if the United States had never tried to control the situation, because now the United States is going to have to accept a defeat, which will destabilize the region psychologically for a while. But what is is, and the facts speak for themselves.

(sjá [alla greinina](http://www.dehai.org/archives/dehai_news_archive/0748.html)) Bendi líka á þessa grein: [Davíð, Halldór, Írak og Ísland](https://www.eoe.is/gamalt/2005/01/09/11.22.48) fyrir þá, sem lesa síðuna ekki um helgar.